Takuto Sakamoto and Mitsugi Endo, “Multi-Agent Simulation of State Collapse and Reconstruction: Analyzing the Past and the Future of Somalia,” ワーキングペーパーシリーズ人工社会研究 No.46（2015年2月）
Civil conflicts are frequently accompanied by significant political dynamics of the state integration and disintegration. Despite a substantial methodological advancement in the conflict literature during the past decade, the serious attempt to incorporate this aspect of conflict into analysis has been mostly lacking. In this paper, we present a multi-agent simulation (MAS) model of civil conflict that has distinctive focus on territorial integration and disintegration of the sovereign state. The model simulates diverse spatial dynamics of the state territorial rule caused by armed conflicts. We apply this model to a case of Somalia: a country that has experienced a drastic process of disintegration and reconstruction for more than two decades. The model is shown to capture several defining characteristics of this process including the strong tendency of the country to fragment. Through extensive simulations in a wide range of settings, we seek an explanation for this tendency. Several policy implications for the future of Somalia are also derived.
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